Oscar predictions (math-nerd style)

The Oscars air tonight, and I’ve updated my regression analysis predicting the Best Picture winner. Despite a few skeptics, the model correctly predicted “The Departed” winning last year. (Lucky or smart? Who knows.)

(See last year’s post for a more in-depth explanation of the regression model. http://invisiblelawstudent.blogspot.com/2007/02/predicting-best-picture-winner.html )

I’ve gone back and updated the data to include last year’s nominees. I’ve continued to only use data from the last five years. I still think this is an excellent way to account for the changing tastes of voters. (What does the behavior of voters from the 1950s really tell us about voters today?)

The updated data again confirms that that the guild awards are still the best predictors of Oscar success. The PGA is still negatively-correlated with winning an Oscar. For movies such as “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Brokeback Mountain,” and “The Aviator,” winning the PGA was essentially the kiss of death. A PGA award can be overcome, but if a film is on the bubble, don’t expect a PGA award to help its Oscar chances. The Golden Globes and box office earnings remain insignificant predictors.

Here’s the updated prediction model for this year:

Oscar Win = SAG x .423 + DGA x .757 + PGA x -.454 + ACE x .285 + -.025

Here’s how the model would predict the winners from the last five years:

Movie	SAG	DGA	PGA	ACE		Points
The Departed	0	1	0	1		1.017
Babel	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Letters from Iwo Jima	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Little Miss Sunshine	1	0	1	0		-0.057
The Queen	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Crash	1	0	0	1		0.683
Brokeback Mountain	0	1	1	0		0.277
Good Night and Good Luck	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Capote	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Munich	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Million Dollar Baby	0	1	0	0		0.732
The Aviator	0	0	1	1		-0.195
Finding Neverland	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Ray	0	0	0	1		0.26
Sideways	1	0	0	0		0.398
Return of the King	1	1	1	1		0.985
Lost in Translation	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Master and Commander	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Mystic River	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Seabiscuit	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Chicago	1	1	1	1		0.985
Gangs of New York	0	0	0	1		0.26
The Hours	0	0	0	0		-0.025
The Two Towers	0	0	0	0		-0.025
The Pianist	0	0	0	0		-0.025

Notice the correct prediction for Crash.

Here’s how the model predicts this year’s nominees:

Movie

SAG

DGA

PGA

ACE

Points

There Will Be Blood	0	0	0	0		-0.025
No Country for Old Men	1	1	1	0		0.7
Atonment	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Juno	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Michael Clayton	0	0	0	0		-0.025

No surprises here – “No Country” is the clear leader. However, it's PGA win shows that it may not perfectly fit Oscar voters' tastes, and its lack of an ACE win highlights its vulnerability. It's still the most likely to win, but don't discount the chances for a "Michael Clayton" or "Juno" to sneak in.

Here’s hoping this helps you take the prize for that Oscar pool. Enjoy the show!

Backup Embedded Pictures

We've made a long awaited update to BlogBackupOnline. Users can now backup their embedded pictures with BlogBackupOnline. The backup engine will now automatically backup any images that you include with your blog entries. We've had this feature available for a few weeks now, but we didn't want to make any major announcement until we got all the bugs worked out of the engine.

Here's how to set BlogBackupOnline to include pictures in backups:

If you are registering a new blog:

Simply register your blog with BlogBackupOnline, and on the following screen select the "Images" checkbox. That's it - you're done.

If you already have your blog registered and you want to set it to back up images:

Select the "Manage" button in the dashboard for the blog
On the right, under "Media files," click "Manage"
Set how big you want the backup files to be (1 to 50 megabytes)
Click the images checkbox, then Submit

All of your blog images with future entries will be backed up. If you want to backup images from previous blog entries, you will need to run a Full Backup again.


We've also made a few other changes:

The restore screen has been modified. Hopefully it is less confusing now. Please leave your comments or send us an e-mail about how you like the new restore screens.

We have a Spanish version BlogBackupOnline up now.


These are all new updates and features, so there will be bugs here and there. Please send us an e-mail or leave a comment when you find one.

Thanks for stopping by the blog - we're looking forward to your comments about the new features.

LiveJournal Mass Deletion

According to CNet News, LiveJournal suspended the accounts of 500 or so individuals that violated Six Apart's terms of service. Techrigy in no way condones any illegal activities, and we support the right of Six Apart in removing accounts that violate its terms of service. However, this is another powerful example of the need to backup your blog and other online content.

If these users who had their LJ accounts suspended had their account backed up with BlogBackupOnline, they would be able to simply transfer their blog to another service where they don't violate the terms of service, or they could create their own privately hosted blog. Unfortunately, many users did not have their blog backed up, and they have most likely lost years of blog posts.

BlogBackupOnline is free, and it is almost effortless to back up your blog. There's really no reason why you shouldn't be backing up your blog.

Thanks for stopping by, and please let us know if there is anything we can do to better your experience with BlogBackupOnline.

LiveJournal Mass Deletion

According to CNet News, LiveJournal suspended the accounts of 500 or so individuals that violated Six Apart's terms of service. Techrigy in no way condones any illegal activities, and we support the right of Six Apart in removing accounts that violate its terms of service. However, this is another powerful example of the need to backup your blog and other online content.

If these users who had their LJ accounts suspended had their account backed up with BlogBackupOnline, they would be able to simply transfer their blog to another service where they don't violate the terms of service, or they could create their own privately hosted blog. Unfortunately, many users did not have their blog backed up, and they have most likely lost years of blog posts.

BlogBackupOnline is free, and it is almost effortless to back up your blog. There's really no reason why you shouldn't be backing up your blog.

Thanks for stopping by, and please let us know if there is anything we can do to better your experience with BlogBackupOnline.

Interview with Profy

A few days ago, Cyndy Aleo-Carreira, a writer for Profy.com, a site that reviews Web 2.0 start-ups, interviewed our very own Aaron Newman to discuss Techrigy's latest and future product developments for social media. Her write-up of their conversation can be found here.

In her article, Cyndy begins by mentioning BlogBackupOnline, a product she herself uses for her own blog backups. She mentions its usefulness as many bloggers, like herself apparently, are lazy or forgetful about backing up their blogs manually themselves. She goes on to discuss how BlogBackupOnline is an important developmental step for Social Media Monitor, Techrigy's enterprise application currently in development.

Social Media Monitor is an enterprise application geared towards compliance and risk management issues arising out of the increasing presence and use of blogs in the workplace. As internal and external communication through blogging becomes more and more significant within the workplace, the potential liability risks are increasing reciprocally.

Techrigy's Social Media Monitor helps enterprises address potential liabilities and damages that could result from social media, as well as to help eliminate liabilities with social media and allow organizations to take full advantage of these media.

Social Media Monitor identifies social media existing internally within enterprises, and also interfaces with blog search engines to identify externally hosted social media operated by employees. Social Media Monitor then gathers the content from these blogs and runs searches against them with predefined rules to identify any liabilities. The blogs will be stored within a database, and checks against them can be run periodically depending on an organization's needs.

During their interview, Cyndy and Aaron discussed some interesting problems the enterprise application will highlight and address. Included among those issues, are, for example, considerations regarding the unmonitored and unrecorded dissemination of possibly highly-sensitive information and, furthermore, the potentially disastrous consequences that will ensue for enterprises if these up-and-coming issues are not anticipated and addressed.

It certainly is exciting to have been so positively reviewed and spotlighted by Profy. We definitely look forward to further conversations with Cyndy in the future. Follow my lead and check more of Cyndy's articles and reviews at Profy.com

Comment posted by Svetlana Gladkova
at 6/1/2007 1:35:00 AM
Kelly, here is Svetlana Gladkova from Profy.com. I am here to thank you for your positive opinion on Cyndy's article and on Profy in general. We will be happy to report on your progress on Profy.

P.S. I also wanted to mention that the link to Profy.com seems to be broken in the end of your post.

Thanks,
Svetlana

Interview with Profy

A few days ago, Cyndy Aleo-Carreira, a writer for Profy.com, a site that reviews Web 2.0 start-ups, interviewed our very own Aaron Newman to discuss Techrigy's latest and future product developments for social media. Her write-up of their conversation can be found here.

In her article, Cyndy begins by mentioning BlogBackupOnline, a product she herself uses for her own blog backups. She mentions its usefulness as many bloggers, like herself apparently, are lazy or forgetful about backing up their blogs manually themselves. She goes on to discuss how BlogBackupOnline is an important developmental step for Social Media Monitor, Techrigy's enterprise application currently in development.

Social Media Monitor is an enterprise application geared towards compliance and risk management issues arising out of the increasing presence and use of blogs in the workplace. As internal and external communication through blogging becomes more and more significant within the workplace, the potential liability risks are increasing reciprocally.

Techrigy's Social Media Monitor helps enterprises address potential liabilities and damages that could result from social media, as well as to help eliminate liabilities with social media and allow organizations to take full advantage of these media.

Social Media Monitor identifies social media existing internally within enterprises, and also interfaces with blog search engines to identify externally hosted social media operated by employees. Social Media Monitor then gathers the content from these blogs and runs searches against them with predefined rules to identify any liabilities. The blogs will be stored within a database, and checks against them can be run periodically depending on an organization's needs.

During their interview, Cyndy and Aaron discussed some interesting problems the enterprise application will highlight and address. Included among those issues, are, for example, considerations regarding the unmonitored and unrecorded dissemination of possibly highly-sensitive information and, furthermore, the potentially disastrous consequences that will ensue for enterprises if these up-and-coming issues are not anticipated and addressed.

It certainly is exciting to have been so positively reviewed and spotlighted by Profy. We definitely look forward to further conversations with Cyndy in the future. Follow my lead and check more of Cyndy's articles and reviews at Profy.com

Breakfast with Tom Golisano

We had the privilege to share breakfast with Tom Golisano yesterday morning at an event made possible by TEN. Mr. Golisano is the founder of Paychex, one of the most successful payroll processing companies in the world. He's also the owner of the Buffalo Sabres (who just happen to be one round away from the Stanley Cup finals).

Mr. Golisano took time to answer questions from the local entrepreneurs that attended the meeting, discussing everything from employee fraud to community activism. The key theme I recognized throughout his talk was perseverance and fortitude. In Layman's terms - getting stuff done.

This theme can be found throughout any successful life. It isn't always the best idea or the smartest person that achieves the greatest success. An essential factor is the ability to make things happen. It's far too easy to have you head in the clouds, dreaming of how you'll make that billion-dollar idea happen. It isn't until the rubber hits the pavement that anything real can be achieved. Revolutionary ideas are secondary; execution is essential.

In other news, Techrigy's own Aaron Newman was quoted in the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, where he discussed TEN.

"Before T.E.N. was around you were really on your own," said Aaron Newman, founder and president of Techrigy Inc., a Pittsford-based software company. "It's really a conduit to a lot of resources people didn't know about before."

TEN really is a great resource. Those in the Upstate NY area that aren't familiar with it would be well served to visit the TEN site. This being our first real press coverage, we will be proudly displaying it throughout the office. Cheers!

Comment posted by Aaron C. Newman (Techrigy, Inc.)
at 5/10/2007 7:54:00 PM
Fixed - thanks for the correction Luidi!

Comment posted by Liudvikas Bukys
at 5/10/2007 7:30:00 PM
There's a typo in your link to the TEN web site -- a pre-ended www.blogger.com/.

Breakfast with Tom Golisano

We had the privilege to share breakfast with Tom Golisano yesterday morning at an event made possible by TEN. Mr. Golisano is the founder of Paychex, one of the most successful payroll processing companies in the world. He's also the owner of the Buffalo Sabres (who just happen to be one round away from the Stanley Cup finals).

Mr. Golisano took time to answer questions from the local entrepreneurs that attended the meeting, discussing everything from employee fraud to community activism. The key theme I recognized throughout his talk was perseverance and fortitude. In Layman's terms - getting stuff done.

This theme can be found throughout any successful life. It isn't always the best idea or the smartest person that achieves the greatest success. An essential factor is the ability to make things happen. It's far too easy to have you head in the clouds, dreaming of how you'll make that billion-dollar idea happen. It isn't until the rubber hits the pavement that anything real can be achieved. Revolutionary ideas are secondary; execution is essential.

In other news, Techrigy's own Aaron Newman was quoted in the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle, where he discussed TEN.

"Before T.E.N. was around you were really on your own," said Aaron Newman, founder and president of Techrigy Inc., a Pittsford-based software company. "It's really a conduit to a lot of resources people didn't know about before."

TEN really is a great resource. Those in the Upstate NY area that aren't familiar with it would be well served to visit the TEN site. This being our first real press coverage, we will be proudly displaying it throughout the office. Cheers!

Spanish Version

We're happy to announce that we now have a Spanish version of BlogBackupOnline available. (Click the Spanish version link on the homepage.) Please notify us if there are any errors in the translation.

If you'd like to see other language versions, please let us know. If there's enough demand, we might be able to put together another translation.

Spanish Version

We're happy to announce that we now have a Spanish version of BlogBackupOnline available. (Click the Spanish version link on the homepage.) Please notify us if there are any errors in the translation.

If you'd like to see other language versions, please let us know. If there's enough demand, we might be able to put together another translation.

Army shutting down blogging?

Interesting news on military bloggers from boingboing today.

Blogging (IMHO) is just another form of communication or expression. Shutting down bloggers seems like an impossible task. It's like saying no one in the military can use email.

I look back to how communication has changed over the past 15 years. I personally served in the Army during Operation Desert Storm back in 1991 and communication between people in the field and the family/friends back home was vastly different. Mail call was the highlight of the day when we would get a physical letter or package of brownies - there was no email. And an occasional 5 minute phone call was a special treat. It would be a shame to shutdown down such a great communication medium.

Army shutting down blogging?

Interesting news on military bloggers from boingboing today.

Blogging (IMHO) is just another form of communication or expression. Shutting down bloggers seems like an impossible task. It's like saying no one in the military can use email.

I look back to how communication has changed over the past 15 years. I personally served in the Army during Operation Desert Storm back in 1991 and communication between people in the field and the family/friends back home was vastly different. Mail call was the highlight of the day when we would get a physical letter or package of brownies - there was no email. And an occasional 5 minute phone call was a special treat. It would be a shame to shutdown down such a great communication medium.

Venture Worthy?

We had a great time this this past week at the Entrepreneur Boot Camp. Thanks to Jack and George from Derby Management for putting it on and to Deb and Mary from TEN for organizing everything.

We took home many key lessons, but one of the questions we found ourselves continuing to discuss is: how does a company know if it's capable of raising venture capital, or even if it needs to raise venture capital? There are a few variables every company considers when trying to decide if it is "venture worthy."

How big is the market?
What type of pedigree do the founders and key management have?
Are there barriers to entry?
How quickly can the company ramp up?

These are just a few considerations, but let's be realistic, the make-or-break variables are the market size and the experience of the company founders and managers.

What's the secret number for market size? I've heard $1 billion from some, $750 million from others, and a host of other amounts. In my experience, anything that has the potential to be a $500 million market wouldn't get tossed in the trash. There's another consideration at play that I think too many people forget. What's the probability that I can own enough of a market to make it worth a VC's while? And no, that 1% isn't enough. It's easy to say that you have a $1 billion dollar market, but how realistic is it that you can capture the market and destroy your competition for the next three years? This is something investors and entrepreneurs should consider.

The other variable, and probably the most important, is pedigree. If you've created two $50 million companies in the past 10 years, it's a lot easier to get that funding, if not almost automatic. If you were hire #2 at a $30 million company, you'll be fine. If you have been one of 100 marketing managers at a Fortune 1000 company for the past ten years, you'll probably need a great team and a great product.

This isn't an attempt at an end-all to any VC discussion, but it's something everyone starting a company should consider. As for the second thought - do you even need VC money? People tend to forget that there are many other funding options - Angels, grants, loans, family, friends, business plan competitions, etc. There's plenty of money out there, and it's a great time to be fundraising.

Venture Worthy?

We had a great time this this past week at the Entrepreneur Boot Camp. Thanks to Jack and George from Derby Management for putting it on and to Deb and Mary from TEN for organizing everything.

We took home many key lessons, but one of the questions we found ourselves continuing to discuss is: how does a company know if it's capable of raising venture capital, or even if it needs to raise venture capital? There are a few variables every company considers when trying to decide if it is "venture worthy."

How big is the market?
What type of pedigree do the founders and key management have?
Are there barriers to entry?
How quickly can the company ramp up?

These are just a few considerations, but let's be realistic, the make-or-break variables are the market size and the experience of the company founders and managers.

What's the secret number for market size? I've heard $1 billion from some, $750 million from others, and a host of other amounts. In my experience, anything that has the potential to be a $500 million market wouldn't get tossed in the trash. There's another consideration at play that I think too many people forget. What's the probability that I can own enough of a market to make it worth a VC's while? And no, that 1% isn't enough. It's easy to say that you have a $1 billion dollar market, but how realistic is it that you can capture the market and destroy your competition for the next three years? This is something investors and entrepreneurs should consider.

The other variable, and probably the most important, is pedigree. If you've created two $50 million companies in the past 10 years, it's a lot easier to get that funding, if not almost automatic. If you were hire #2 at a $30 million company, you'll be fine. If you have been one of 100 marketing managers at a Fortune 1000 company for the past ten years, you'll probably need a great team and a great product.

This isn't an attempt at an end-all to any VC discussion, but it's something everyone starting a company should consider. As for the second thought - do you even need VC money? People tend to forget that there are many other funding options - Angels, grants, loans, family, friends, business plan competitions, etc. There's plenty of money out there, and it's a great time to be fundraising.

Losing data and other tidbits

Whenever we pitch BlogBackupOnline to anyone, we always say that our concern is not that a hosting provider losing data as a user accidentally deleting content. A perfect recent example of this is Business 2.0 deleting its June issue from the editorial server before it went to press. The magazine lost all its layouts for the issue.

In college, when I worked at the newspaper, we religiously saved our layouts every five minutes, but things still happened that caused us to lose data and have sleepless nights. Having backups ready could have saved a lot headaches.

We've had a lot of people tell us how they lost their blog content because of a user mistake or accidental deletion. BlogBackupOnline can prevent that huge setback when your content is eventually lost - whether it happens tomorrow or a year from now.


In other news, some of us are attending the Entrepreneur Bootcamp with The Entrepreneur Network in Rochester. We're doing a lot of discussion and learning about business plans, raising capital, etc, so we'll be sure to share our experiences with you.

Losing data and other tidbits

Whenever we pitch BlogBackupOnline to anyone, we always say that our concern is not that a hosting provider losing data as a user accidentally deleting content. A perfect recent example of this is Business 2.0 deleting its June issue from the editorial server before it went to press. The magazine lost all its layouts for the issue.

In college, when I worked at the newspaper, we religiously saved our layouts every five minutes, but things still happened that caused us to lose data and have sleepless nights. Having backups ready could have saved a lot headaches.

We've had a lot of people tell us how they lost their blog content because of a user mistake or accidental deletion. BlogBackupOnline can prevent that huge setback when your content is eventually lost - whether it happens tomorrow or a year from now.


In other news, some of us are attending the Entrepreneur Bootcamp with The Entrepreneur Network in Rochester. We're doing a lot of discussion and learning about business plans, raising capital, etc, so we'll be sure to share our experiences with you.