Oscar predictions (math-nerd style)

The Oscars air tonight, and I’ve updated my regression analysis predicting the Best Picture winner. Despite a few skeptics, the model correctly predicted “The Departed” winning last year. (Lucky or smart? Who knows.)

(See last year’s post for a more in-depth explanation of the regression model. http://invisiblelawstudent.blogspot.com/2007/02/predicting-best-picture-winner.html )

I’ve gone back and updated the data to include last year’s nominees. I’ve continued to only use data from the last five years. I still think this is an excellent way to account for the changing tastes of voters. (What does the behavior of voters from the 1950s really tell us about voters today?)

The updated data again confirms that that the guild awards are still the best predictors of Oscar success. The PGA is still negatively-correlated with winning an Oscar. For movies such as “Little Miss Sunshine,” “Brokeback Mountain,” and “The Aviator,” winning the PGA was essentially the kiss of death. A PGA award can be overcome, but if a film is on the bubble, don’t expect a PGA award to help its Oscar chances. The Golden Globes and box office earnings remain insignificant predictors.

Here’s the updated prediction model for this year:

Oscar Win = SAG x .423 + DGA x .757 + PGA x -.454 + ACE x .285 + -.025

Here’s how the model would predict the winners from the last five years:

Movie	SAG	DGA	PGA	ACE		Points
The Departed	0	1	0	1		1.017
Babel	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Letters from Iwo Jima	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Little Miss Sunshine	1	0	1	0		-0.057
The Queen	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Crash	1	0	0	1		0.683
Brokeback Mountain	0	1	1	0		0.277
Good Night and Good Luck	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Capote	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Munich	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Million Dollar Baby	0	1	0	0		0.732
The Aviator	0	0	1	1		-0.195
Finding Neverland	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Ray	0	0	0	1		0.26
Sideways	1	0	0	0		0.398
Return of the King	1	1	1	1		0.985
Lost in Translation	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Master and Commander	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Mystic River	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Seabiscuit	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Chicago	1	1	1	1		0.985
Gangs of New York	0	0	0	1		0.26
The Hours	0	0	0	0		-0.025
The Two Towers	0	0	0	0		-0.025
The Pianist	0	0	0	0		-0.025

Notice the correct prediction for Crash.

Here’s how the model predicts this year’s nominees:

Movie

SAG

DGA

PGA

ACE

Points

There Will Be Blood	0	0	0	0		-0.025
No Country for Old Men	1	1	1	0		0.7
Atonment	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Juno	0	0	0	0		-0.025
Michael Clayton	0	0	0	0		-0.025

No surprises here – “No Country” is the clear leader. However, it's PGA win shows that it may not perfectly fit Oscar voters' tastes, and its lack of an ACE win highlights its vulnerability. It's still the most likely to win, but don't discount the chances for a "Michael Clayton" or "Juno" to sneak in.

Here’s hoping this helps you take the prize for that Oscar pool. Enjoy the show!